Other

Will Jensen Huang be arrested by December 31, 2026?

9% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 9¢ means about a 9% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.9%
What has to happen
Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.91%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 9%No 91%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 5.5¢ to 9.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
1m ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
31m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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