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Geopolitics

Will Ivanka Popović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

19% say Ivanka Popović wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 19¢ means about a 19% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

  • Ivanka PopovićIvanka Popović wins the election.19%

    What has to happen

    Ivanka Popović wins, under the rules.

  • Aleksandar VučićAleksandar Vučić wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Aleksandar Vučić wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.

See all fine print
  • If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 10.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 8.4¢ to 19.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price fell 12.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 21.6¢ to 8.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 29.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 50¢ to 20.8¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.”
  • “If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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