Geopolitics

Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?

33% say yes

Up 28 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 33¢ means about a 33% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.33%
What has to happen
Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.67%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart

Yes 33%No 67%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 7.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 29.5¢ to 36.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus24m ago
The price rose 9.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 26¢ to 35¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus55m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time…”
“If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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