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Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Hesai being removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027 at about 18%.

It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Announced

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  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed) · https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedA qualifying official announcement is enough. Rule text: "…ral Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsi…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver