US Elections

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

94% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 94¢ means about a 94% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.94%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.6%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 94%No 6%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (40/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
50m ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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