Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5-point rule check
Polymarket
Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak)Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
- Source
- Deadline
- Counts as Yes
- Backup rules
- Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous · https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the S…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.