Weather

Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make in China during 2026?

7% say yes

Down 31 points today.

Decided by NOAA , by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 7¢ means about a 7% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Official reports from the National Hurricane Center decide it.

Possible results

YesThe weather event in the question happens and is officially reported.7%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.93%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 7%No 93%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 6.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.7¢ to 4.3¢. No official release came out at that time.
▲ No official news at the time · nhc.noaa.gov7h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedMoved without official news

Fine-print risk

Medium (40/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on NOAA National Hurricane Center. Price moved -6.4 points (7h ago) without a primary release on the NHC feed in the window.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: NHC advisory, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
6h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".”
“If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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