US Elections

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?

Settlement under review

To be decided by consensus of credible reporting

The result posted on Polymarket is being disputed, so no result is shown here until it is final.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (October 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date ().

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.No result yet
What has to happen
Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.No result yet
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by October 31, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 7:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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