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US Elections

Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate ?

66% say Democrats win

Up 6 points today.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

Results can take until March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 66¢ means about a 66% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

  • DemocratsDemocrats win the election.66%

    What has to happen

    Democrats win, under the rules.

  • RepublicansRepublicans win the election.12%

    What has to happen

    Republicans win, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, the market settles as "Other".
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 62.5¢ to 66.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls33m ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 60.5¢ to 64¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls1h ago

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 57.5¢ to 61.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: race calls after election daySettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
  • Fine print: It settles on the race calls after election day, not at a set time. Election day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026. Polymarket’s listed end date is Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM ET. Results can take until Mar 31, 2027.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for…”
  • “If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?: explained simply · MarketWeaver