Commodities

Will Crude Oil reach a new by March 31, 2027?

19% say yes

Down 9 points today.

Decided by CME Group NYMEX/COMEX contract data, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 19¢ means about a 19% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.19%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.81%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Price chart

Yes 19%No 81%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by CME / NYMEX

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on CME Group NYMEX/COMEX contract data (cmegroup.com). Updates during exchange trading hours. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: CME / NYMEX (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 15 times the usual hourly amount.
9m ago
Trading rose to about 15 times the usual hourly amount.
39m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for…”
“The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.