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Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?

80% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by agi.safe.ai, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 80¢ means about an 80% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.80%

    What has to happen

    The next Anthropic Claude Fable 5.2 model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.20%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

No score other than the chart value or a qualifying score will count, even if no qualifying score is published.

See all fine print
  • In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 81¢ to 85.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai27m ago

  • The price rose 6.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 74.5¢ to 81¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai57m ago

  • The price fell 10.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 85¢ to 75¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai2h ago

  • The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 86.5¢ to 83.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai2h ago

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 80.5¢ to 84.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai3h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 79¢ to 82.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai4h ago

  • The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 83.5¢ to 80¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: agi.safe.ai5h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by agi.safe.ai
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on agi.safe.ai (agi.safe.ai). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: agi.safe.ai (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable 5.2 model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an…”
  • “In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational…”
  • “If the Center for AI Safety (CAIS), which maintains the official Humanity's Last Exam results, publishes a qualifying score (defined below) for the model, and…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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