Decided by official government/military statements plus a Credible reporting. When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final. credible reporting, by December 31, 2027.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
There is no live market linked to this card yet, so there are no prices to show.
The one trap›
If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.
Show details for experienced traders
The details
No live order bookRule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Yes orders vs No orders near the price
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no order list read
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)
Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.
Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan)…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council…”
