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Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 November 2-8?

48% say yes

Up 12 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 2, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 48¢ means about a 48% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

  • YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.48%

    What has to happen

    Any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.52%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 2, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 6 points in about 15 minutes, from 41.5¢ to 47.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1m ago

  • The price rose 11.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 32.5¢ to 43.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)41m ago

  • The price rose 12 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.5¢ to 37.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1h ago

  • The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 23.5¢ to 28.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: one 1-minute touch countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles Yes as soon as any 1-minute candle’s high reaches the strike, even if the price moves back right away. Deadline: Window ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM…”
  • “The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 November 2-8?: explained simply · MarketWeaver