Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

3% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.3%
What has to happen
Any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title.
NoIt doesn’t happen.97%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by January 1, 2027.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 23:59 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart

Yes 3%No 97%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: one 1-minute touch countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

1m Candle High/Low Touch

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles Yes if any single 1-minute candle high or low touches the strike price, even if the price reverses right away. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 ET (deadline). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).
3m ago
Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).
34m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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