Other

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

74% say yes

Up 22 points today.

Decided by the-numbers.com, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 74¢ means about a 74% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.74%
What has to happen
The relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.26%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

See all fine print

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price chart

Yes 74%No 26%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 68¢ to 73¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: the-numbers.com2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedSettled by the-numbers.com

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on the-numbers.com (the-numbers.com). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: the-numbers.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026.”
“This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026.”
“If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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