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Will Apple be the largest company in the world by on December 31?

32% say Apple will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31

Up 9 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • NVIDIANVIDIA wins.63%

    What has to happen

    NVIDIA wins, under the rules.

  • AppleApple wins.32%

    What has to happen

    Apple wins, under the rules.

  • AlphabetAlphabet wins.2%

    What has to happen

    Alphabet wins, under the rules.

  • MicrosoftMicrosoft wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Microsoft wins, under the rules.

Show 4 more results
  • SpaceXSpaceX wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    SpaceX wins, under the rules.

  • TeslaTesla wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tesla wins, under the rules.

  • Saudi AramcoSaudi Aramco wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Saudi Aramco wins, under the rules.

  • AmazonAmazon wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Amazon wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 7.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 38.8¢ to 31.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
High (60/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 6 times the usual hourly amount).

    16m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).

    46m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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