Other

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

3% say yes

Down 3 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.3%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.97%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 3%No 97%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
“Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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