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ETFs & SEC

Will Anthropic's valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?

40% say yes

Up 10 points today.

Decided by Securities and Exchange Commission, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 40¢ means about a 40% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.40%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.60%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

(1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of trusted news reports.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 9.7 points in about 15 minutes, from 29.6¢ to 39.2¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov3h ago

  • The price fell 6.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 36.5¢ to 29.6¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov7h ago

  • The price fell 9.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 43.9¢ to 34.1¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov7h ago

  • The price rose 16.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.8¢ to 35¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov9h ago

  • The price fell 15.7 points in about 15 minutes, from 40.3¢ to 24.6¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov9h ago

  • The price rose 30.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 8.7¢ to 38.8¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov10h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsMoved without official news
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. Price moved +9.7 points (3h ago) without a primary release on the SEC feed in the window.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes.

    1h ago

  • The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes.

    2h ago

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes.

    6h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price.”
  • “If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".”
  • “The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?: explained simply · MarketWeaver