Tech

Will Anthropic not by November 30, 2026?

5% say yes

Down 13 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.5%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.95%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no IPO occurs by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No IPO by November 30, 2026".

Price chart

Yes 5%No 95%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source for this market will be the official listing page of the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also…”
“If no IPO occurs by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by November 30, 2026".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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