ETFs & SEC

Will Anthropic by November 19, 2026?

80% say yes

Up 37 points today.

Decided by Securities and Exchange Commission, by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 80¢ means about an 80% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.80%
What has to happen
Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.20%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 80%No 20%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 11.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 73¢ to 84.5¢. No official release came out at that time.
▲ No official news at the time · sec.gov32m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenMoved without official news

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. Price moved +11.5 points (32m ago) without a primary release on the SEC feed in the window.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Nov 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
2m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on…”
“The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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