CPI & Inflation

Will annual be 3.2% or less in October?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Bureau of Labor Statistics, by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by release.

Possible results

YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If a government shutdown delays the report, each venue handles the delay in its own way. Check the rules.

See all fine print

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report.
If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by .gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: CPI release, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
19m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the…”
“If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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