Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Named source: Official party sources · End date Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

There is one market for each possible winner (5 in all).

2.Words to know

Nomination: Being chosen as a party’s official candidate for an election.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Certified result: The final, official vote count approved by election officials. It can come days or weeks after election night.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.

3.Each possible result

Andy BeshearCrowd’s chance: about 4%
What it would mean: Andy Beshear is the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
What has to happen: The named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.
James TalaricoCrowd’s chance: about 2%
What it would mean: James Talarico is the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
What has to happen: The named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.
Wes MooreCrowd’s chance: about 2%
What it would mean: Wes Moore is the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
What has to happen: The named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.
Elissa SlotkinCrowd’s chance: less than 1%
What it would mean: Elissa Slotkin is the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
What has to happen: The named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.
Andrew YangCrowd’s chance: less than 1%
What it would mean: Andrew Yang is the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
What has to happen: The named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.

Each result is its own market, so these chances come from separate prices and may not add up to exactly 100%.

4.How the payout works

In this market, each Yes share pays $1 if Andrew Yang wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At under 1¢, the crowd gives Andrew Yang less than a 1% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Andrew Yang winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at less than 1%.

There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by Official party sources

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) Deadline: Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Official party sources (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sources

Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 25

Who settles it (official source)

Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)

Deadline and time zone

Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Seat / Electoral CertificationRequires the candidate to win and accept the party's nomination (normally at the convention); leading in delegates or polls is not enough. A later replacement of the nominee does not change the result. Rule text: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.