Geopolitics

Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

<1% say Ali Motahari will be head of state in Iran end of 2026

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Mojtaba KhameneiMojtaba Khamenei wins.92%
What has to happen
Mojtaba Khamenei wins, under the rules.
Gholam-Ali Haddad-AdelGholam-Ali Haddad-Adel wins.<1%
What has to happen
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel wins, under the rules.
Ali MotahariAli Motahari wins.<1%
What has to happen
Ali Motahari wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, the market settles as “No Head of State”.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.”
“If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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