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Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?

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Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

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The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

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The details

No live order bookRule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Chance the crowd gives Yes

no live price

Buyers vs sellers near the price

no order list read

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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