Fed & Rates

Will 3 happen in 2026?

6% say yes

Up 5 points today.

Decided by every Fed rate decision in the year, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 6¢ means about a 6% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Counts every Fed rate hike in 2026, including emergency moves, through Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.6%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.94%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The source says that strong job indicators are currently influencing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Sources checked 2:05 AM ET

See sources (4)

Federal Reserve · Oct 28, 2026
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Federal Reserve · Oct 7, 2026
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
The Economic Times · Nov 7
Nasdaq rebounds but posts fourth straight weekly decline

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

Price chart

Yes 6%No 94%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenOfficial source: recent release

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (13d ago).
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement13d ago

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
27m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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