Geopolitics

US x Yemen continues through November 30?

92% say yes

Up 6 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 92¢ means about a 92% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.92%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 30, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.8%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart

Yes 92%No 8%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.””
“This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.