Geopolitics

US x Iran Effective by December 31?

82% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 82¢ means about an 82% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.82%
What has to happen
A continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.18%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 82%No 18%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
4m ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
34m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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