Commodities

US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by December 31?

28% say yes

Down 8 points today.

Decided by thehill.com, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 28¢ means about a 28% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.28%
What has to happen
The United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.72%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.

Price chart

Yes 28%No 72%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsSettled by thehill.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: thehill.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: thehill.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
26m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
56m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.”
“Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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