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U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

Named source: U.S. government statements

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

No live order bookRule note: the announcement countsSettled by U.S. government statements
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Announced
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official U.S. government information (President, Defense/State Departments, CENTCOM or official representatives). Updates when an official statement is issued. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: U.S. government statements (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: U.S. government statements
Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 20
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official U.S. government information (President, Defense/State Departments, CENTCOM or official representatives)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…is market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina M…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver