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Geopolitics

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?

13% say yes

Up 5 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 13¢ means about a 13% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.13%

    What has to happen

    A qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.87%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 11¢ to 14¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus11m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the…”
  • “A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
  • “Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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