Other

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?

14% say yes

Down 10 points today.

Decided by official U.S. government information, by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 14¢ means about a 14% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.14%
What has to happen
The United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.86%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.

Price chart

Yes 14%No 86%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 19.5¢ to 12¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: U.S. government statements1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by U.S. government statements

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official U.S. government information (President, Defense/State Departments, CENTCOM or official representatives). Updates when an official statement is issued. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: U.S. government statements (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
19m ago
Trading rose to about 13 times the usual hourly amount.
49m ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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