Geopolitics

Over vs Under: who will win?

57% say Over wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by the official final result.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 57¢ means about a 57% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Italy and France: O/U 2.5 play a match.

Possible results

OverOver wins.57%
What has to happen
Italy and France combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.
UnderUnder wins.43%
What has to happen
The combined total is less than 3.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Over 57%Under 43%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles NoNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are ignored, so a draw after 90 minutes settles No on a team-to-win contract. Deadline: Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 2:45 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the…”
“Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.