Geopolitics

Will France win on 2026-11-12?

54% say France wins

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 12, 2026, 2:45 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 54¢ means about a 54% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 12, 2026, 2:45 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

FranceFrance wins.54%
What has to happen
France wins.
ItalyItaly wins.22%
What has to happen
Italy wins.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, the market settles as "No".

Price chart

Yes 54%No 46%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles NoNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are ignored, so a draw after 90 minutes settles No on a team-to-win contract. Deadline: Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 2:45 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If France wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".”
“If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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