Geopolitics

: France (-1.5)

67% say France

Up 7 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 15, 2026, 2:45 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 67¢ means about a 67% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

FranceThe result is “France”.67%
What has to happen
France win the game by 2 or more goals.
TürkiyeThe result is “Türkiye”.33%
What has to happen
Türkiye beats France, under the rules.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

France 67%Türkiye 33%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 63.5¢ to 66.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus13m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles NoNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are ignored, so a draw after 90 minutes settles No on a team-to-win contract. Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 2:45 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If the game is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“If a result is awarded by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Türkiye".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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