Geopolitics

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30, 2027?

24% say yes

Up 4 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 24¢ means about a 24% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: A peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

Yes24%
What has to happen
A peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.76%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 24%No 76%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 23.5¢ to 19.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus2h ago
The price fell 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 25¢ to 20¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus3h ago
The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 21¢ to 25¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus4h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
18m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
49m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.