Geopolitics

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027?

29% say yes

Up 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 29¢ means about a 29% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.29%
What has to happen
Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.71%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 29%No 71%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
2m ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
32m ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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