Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Nov 15, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 15, 2026), the answer is No.

2.Words to know

End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.
CFTC: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US government agency that oversees exchanges like Kalshi.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.

3.Each possible result

YesCrowd’s chance: about 6%
What it would mean: The event in the question happens before the deadline.
What has to happen: The Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoCrowd’s chance: about 94%
What it would mean: The deadline passes without it happening.
What has to happen: That doesn’t happen by November 15, 2026.

4.How the payout works

Each Yes share pays $1 if Yes wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 6¢, the crowd gives Yes about a 6% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 6% on “Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15”.

There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, the price history and every real price move here.

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 30

Who settles it (official source)

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Deadline and time zone

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET."

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.