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Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

25% say yes

Down 5 points today.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 25¢ means about a 25% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.25%

    What has to happen

    President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.75%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. Latest FEDREG release on this topic: "National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering; Notice of Meeting" (8h ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries
  • Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).

    7m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    38m ago

  • The price rose 4 points in about 15 minutes.

    1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?: explained simply · MarketWeaver