Tech

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

30% say yes

Up 21 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 30¢ means about a 30% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: It is officially announced that Tesla, Inc.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.30%
What has to happen
It is officially announced that Tesla, Inc.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.70%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 30%No 70%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 25¢ to 29¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus15h ago
The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 33¢ to 29.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus18h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
15h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
17h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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