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SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?

81% say Down

Down 51 points today.

Decided by Pyth 1-minute candles, by November 2, 2026, 4:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 81¢ means about an 81% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • UpThe result is “Up”.19%

    What has to happen

    The Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.

  • DownThe result is “Down”.81%

    What has to happen

    The Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on November 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.

The one trap

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.

See all fine print
  • If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 24.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 43¢ to 18.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Pyth 1m candle4m ago

  • The price fell 24.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 45.4¢ to 21.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Pyth 1m candle40m ago

  • The price fell 36.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 79.4¢ to 43.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Pyth 1m candle1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Pyth 1m candle
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Pyth 1-minute candles (pyth.network). Updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 9:30 AM ET.

Source named: Pyth 1m candle (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.”
  • “If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?: explained simply · MarketWeaver