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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?

Named source: wsj.com

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Low surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

No live order bookRule note: only the close countsSettled by wsj.com
Chance the crowd gives Yes
-
no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
-
no order book read
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
Market-Close Snapshot
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: wsj.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: wsj.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: wsj.com
Fine-print risk: Low (10/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 10
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Named URL in rules: wsj.com · https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
2.
Deadline and time zone
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…s market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is higher tha…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver