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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?
71% say Up
Up 16 points today.
Decided by wsj.com, by November 12, 2026.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 71¢ means about a 71% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
UpThe result is “Up”.71%
What has to happen
The official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, November 12, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
DownThe result is “Down”.29%
What has to happen
The official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, November 12, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
The one trap
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
See all fine print
- If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
Price chart
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Recorded moves
The price fell 6.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 70¢ to 63.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: wsj.com18m ago
The price fell 21.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 77.5¢ to 56.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: wsj.com58m ago
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