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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 10?

84% say Down

Down 38 points today.

Decided by wsj.com, by November 10, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 84¢ means about an 84% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • UpThe result is “Up”.16%

    What has to happen

    The official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

  • DownThe result is “Down”.84%

    What has to happen

    The official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

The one trap

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.

See all fine print
  • If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 19.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 40.5¢ to 21¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: wsj.com6m ago

  • The price rose 25.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.5¢ to 44¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: wsj.com37m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by wsj.com
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: wsj.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Tue, Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM ET.

Source named: wsj.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".”
  • “If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 10?: explained simply · MarketWeaver