Geopolitics

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

94% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by the election on November 29, 2026, using major news reports.

Results can take until November 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 94¢ means about a 94% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. Yes wins if: The People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election.

Possible results

Yes94%
What has to happen
The People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election.
NoIt doesn’t happen.6%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 94%No 6%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedSettled by infoelectoral.interior.gob.es (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (infoelectoral.interior.gob.es) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: infoelectoral.interior.gob.es (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress…”
“If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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