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Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 5?

78% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 78¢ means about a 78% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.78%

    What has to happen

    Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.22%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 72.7¢ to 76¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus57m ago

  • The price rose 10.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 62.5¢ to 72.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on…”
  • “If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.”
  • “Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 5?: explained simply · MarketWeaver