Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine energy agreement by December 31, 2026?

32% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: There is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.32%
What has to happen
There is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.68%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

Price chart

Yes 32%No 68%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
29m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59…”
“If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the energy ceasefire officially…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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