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Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine by December 31, 2027?

40% say yes

Down 13 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 40¢ means about a 40% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.40%

    What has to happen

    A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.60%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in effect, or until the 10 calendar days have been reached.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 39¢ to 43.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus20m ago

  • The price rose 16.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 30.5¢ to 46.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.

    55m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the…”
  • “The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.”
  • “If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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