Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine agreement by April 30, 2027?

42% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 42¢ means about a 42% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: There is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.42%
What has to happen
There is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.58%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 42%No 58%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Fri, Apr 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
“If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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