Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Named source: predict.fun · End date Jan 1, 12:00 AM ET · Live market: Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

2.Words to know

FDV: Fully diluted valuation: a token’s price times the total number of tokens that will ever exist.
Token: A digital asset that lives on a blockchain, such as a cryptocurrency coin.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.
CFTC: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US government agency that oversees exchanges like Kalshi.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.

3.Each possible result

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launchCrowd’s chance: about 98%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launchCrowd’s chance: about 97%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launchCrowd’s chance: about 93%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launchCrowd’s chance: about 58%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.

Each result is its own market, so these chances come from separate prices and may not add up to exactly 100%.

4.How the payout works

Each Yes share pays $1 if Yes wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 97¢, the crowd gives Yes about a 97% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 97% on “Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch”.

It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, the price history and every real price move here.

See Pro

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: stated conditionSettled by predict.fun

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: predict.fun. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: predict.fun (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: predict.fun

Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 15

Who settles it (official source)

Named URL in rules: predict.fun · https://predict.fun/

Deadline and time zone

Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch."

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".