Congress & Courts

Will there be no House floor vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?

95% say yes

Up 79 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 95¢ means about a 95% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.95%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.5%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No vote".

Price chart

Yes 95%No 5%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary…”
“If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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